Get Ready For Leonid

The Leonids are composed of the dusty debris that has been shed by the comet Temple-Tuttle, a small celestial body that orbits the Sun at 33-year intervals. In those years during and then for several years after the comet has swept through the inner solar system, it has had a propensity for producing spectacular meteor displays; meteors falling by the hundreds, if not thousands per hour. These "shooting stars" all apparently emanate from the constellation of Leo, the Lion. Hence the name "Leonids."

The comet last passed the Sun and Earth in 1998, and from that year through 2002, the Leonids produced showers in which meteors fell at rates of more than a thousand per hour—displays that astronomers call meteor storms.

Since 2003, however, with Temple-Tuttle having receded back into the far reaches of the solar system, the Leonids have been disappointing, barely producing more than 10 meteors per hour.

It appeared that the chances of any more spectacular Leonid displays were over for many years to come. But that might not be case, if the calculations of several reputable meteor scientists prove to be correct.

Prediction for 2006
Apparently, a rather narrow but dense ribbon of dust was shed by comet Temple-Tuttle when it passed the Sun in 1932. When the Earth interacted with that dusty trail back in 1969, it produced a brief bevy of some 200 to 300 meteors in less than hour.

In 2006, Earth will be nearly twice as far away from the comet as opposed to 1969, but expectations are that as many as 100 to 150 Leonids may streak across the sky in only an hour's time as we interact with that decades-old ribbon of debris again.The 2006 Leonids will show a dust trail encounter with the "1932-dust trail" of comet 55P/Tempel-Tuttle, as well as the possible return of the "Filament component".

The calculated peak time of the outburst is 04:45 UT (Dust Trail encounter). It will probably not last very long (i.e. meteor activity will rise and fall quite sharply).

Peak time of the Filament component is uncertain.

The "traditional maximum" of the annual Leonid shower is earlier on November 17, around 16:45 UT, well placed for the western USA (early morning of November 18 local time).

Hope we get clear Sky on Sunday Morning. Get Ready for Vangani Program guys...